Next Horizon Advisory
Strategic Advisory · New Zealand & Australia

Thinking beyond
the next horizon.

Strategic advice that helps public sector organisations make better decisions about economic development, spatial planning and regional growth.

What I do About Patrick
30+
Years of experience
NZ & AU
Operating across both markets
2022
EDNZ Distinguished Service Award
MAINSTREAM ESTABLISHED EMERGING ECONOMY TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENT SOCIETY GOVERNANCE INNOVATION NEXT HORIZON
City & Region Trend Radar · hover to explore
What Next Horizon Advisory does

Good advice, clearly delivered.

The challenges facing cities and regions are being reshaped by powerful trends and drivers, including demographic change, shifting economic geography, technology, climate risk, and changing community expectations. Against this backdrop of strategic uncertainty, decision-makers need to look further ahead: aligning economic development priorities with spatial planning, tackling long-running infrastructure deficits, responding to climate change, and ensuring growth translates into shared prosperity.

I've worked for and with regional and local government agencies for more than three decades across New Zealand, Australia and the UK, helping public sector organisations think through these challenges and act on them.

No big team, no overhead. Just focused, practical advice you can actually use.

More about me

Economic development strategy

City and regional economic development strategies grounded in evidence and designed to drive real outcomes.

Spatial & infrastructure planning

Connecting economic thinking to spatial and infrastructure planning at regional and local level.

Research, policy & evaluation

Independent, rigorous research and policy advice for central and local government clients.

Training & facilitation

Designing and delivering learning programmes and masterclasses for economic development professionals.

Where I can help

Ready to work on your project?

About Next Horizon

Find out more about who I am and what drives my work.

Learn more →

Expertise & Services

See how Next Horizon Advisory can help you and your organisation.

See what I offer →

Insights & Presentations

Articles, thinking and selected past presentations.

Read more →

Get in touch

Want to talk through a project or challenge?

Get in touch →
2022 EDNZ Distinguished Service Award

"Contribution to the profession and practice of economic development."

Winner of Economic Development New Zealand's highest individual honour, recognising over three decades of leadership in the field.

Read more about Patrick
About

About Next Horizon Advisory.

Senior strategic advice from someone who has done this work, at every level, for over thirty years.

Patrick McVeigh
Member of the Royal Town Planning Institute (MRTPI)
Fellow, Royal Society of the Arts (FRSA)
Global Fellow, The Business of Cities
Patrick McVeigh

The thinking behind Next Horizon.

I established Next Horizon Advisory in 2026 to do one thing well: provide focused, practical strategic advice to public sector clients across New Zealand and Australia.

My career has taken me from regional development in Wales and Scotland, to urban regeneration in London, to innovation precinct establishment in Auckland. I've led the preparation of plans and strategies covering economic development and diversification, innovation, infrastructure, workforce and skills, and business and investment attraction and retention. Along the way I've led teams, run consultancies, advised governments, and helped communities think about their economic futures.

I've seen what good strategic advice looks like and what it doesn't. The best advice is grounded in evidence, shaped by genuine understanding of the context, and delivered in a way that helps clients move forward. That's what I aim for.

Working through Next Horizon Advisory, I can bring the depth of that experience to your project without the cost and complexity of a large consultancy. You get senior, focused attention from someone who knows this work.

Career highlights
2026 – present
Founder, Next Horizon Advisory

Strategic advisory practice serving public sector clients in NZ and Australia.

2023 – present
Global Fellow, The Business of Cities

Supporting client work for the London-based urban intelligence agency across Australia and New Zealand.

2024 – 2026
Technical Director, Beca

Led the regional economic development portfolio as part of Beca's national strategic advisory team.

2018 – 2024
Practice Lead, MartinJenkins

Economic development research, policy and consulting for central and local government clients.

2013 – 2018
GM Business, Innovation & Skills, ATEED

Led the establishment of GridAKL and managed over 60 staff across key business units.

2007 – 2013
Managing Director, Shared Intelligence (London)

Led a 40-person consultancy specialising in economic development, evaluation and public policy.

2000 – 2005
Director of Strategy & Corporate Planning, London Development Agency

Led development of London's Economic Development Strategy for a 200-person agency with £400m annual budget.

Governance experience

Governance across the profession.

I've contributed to the governance of the economic development profession at national and international level.

2013 – 2025
Economic Development New Zealand
Appointed to the Board of EDANZ before election to the Board of Economic Development New Zealand. Served as Deputy Chair of the Board for four years and Chair of the Conference Committee.
2016 – 2018
IEDC International Advisory Committee
Member of the IEDC's International Advisory Committee supporting their global engagement and strategy activities.
2002 – 2005
European Association of Development Agencies
Member of the EURADA Board, bringing together economic development agencies from across Europe to support best practice sharing, policy development and engagement.
Expertise & Services

Here to help.

I work across economic development, spatial planning, research and professional learning. Whatever your project, I'll bring the right experience to it.

What I can do for you

Expertise & services.

My work spans strategy, research, policy, planning and professional development. Here's a guide to what I offer — though every project is different, so get in touch to discuss what you need.

01

Economic development strategy

Helping cities and regions develop robust, evidence-based economic strategies that are practical and deliverable.

  • City and regional economic development strategies
  • Economic baseline analysis and diagnostics
  • Sector development strategies
  • Investment attraction and place marketing advice
  • Innovation ecosystem development
02

Spatial & infrastructure planning

Connecting economic thinking to spatial planning and infrastructure investment decisions at regional and local level.

  • Regional infrastructure planning
  • Spatial planning frameworks and strategies
  • Future scenario development
  • City and regional deals advice
  • Integration of economic and spatial planning
03

Research, policy & evaluation

Independent, rigorous research and policy advice to help clients understand the evidence and act on it.

  • Policy research and analysis
  • Programme and project evaluation
  • Economic intelligence and data
  • Literature reviews and horizon scanning
  • Peer review and quality assurance
04

Training & professional development

Designing and delivering learning programmes for economic development and planning professionals.

  • Masterclasses and workshops
  • Conference design and facilitation
  • Curriculum and programme development
  • Team development and mentoring
  • Speaking and keynote presentations
05

Strategic advisory & review

Providing an experienced, independent perspective to challenge thinking and strengthen decision-making.

  • Strategic reviews and health checks
  • Independent advisory roles
  • Peer review for major projects
  • Sounding board and advisory panel support
  • Stakeholder engagement facilitation
→

Not sure what you need?

That's fine. Most interesting projects don't fit neatly into categories. Let's have a conversation about your challenge and work out together what would be most useful.

Get in touch
Recent work

Some of the projects I've worked on.

My previous work spans New Zealand, Australia and the UK, with a focus on regional economic development, sector strategies, and spatial planning.

Auckland – Auckland Council Economic Development Office

Undertook comparative research on Auckland's technology sector workforce.

South East Queensland – Council of Mayors (SEQ)

Supported The Business of Cities research on South East Queensland's globally competitive sectors.

Auckland – Auckland Council Economic Development Office

Supported The Business of Cities project to develop a city centre investment attraction playbook.

Northland – Northland Inc.

Led the Beca team preparing a regional infrastructure plan to support Northland's long-term economic development.

Taranaki – Taranaki Regional Council

Led the Beca project to develop future energy sector scenarios for Taranaki as input to the preparation of a regional spatial plan.

South East Queensland – Council of Mayors (SEQ)

Supported the Business of Cities project benchmarking South East Queensland in a global context.

Auckland – Auckland Council

Led the Beca project evaluating the 10-year impact of GridAKL, Auckland's innovation precinct.

Queenstown – Queenstown Lakes District Council

Led the MartinJenkins team preparing an economic diversification plan for Queenstown Lakes.

City Trends

City Horizons 2026.

Sixteen trends reshaping cities and regions in the global economy to 2050, and what they mean for New Zealand and Australia.

Trend scan · October 2026

City trends.

City Horizons 2026 is a strategic trend scan of the forces reshaping cities and regions, read for New Zealand and Australia. It sets out sixteen trends under six drivers, rates each for impact, certainty of direction and timing, and identifies five critical uncertainties against which strategies should be tested. It draws on reports from the UN, OECD, World Bank and others, official statistics and agency publications in both countries, and research and news coverage to October 2026.

Most of the debate on both sides of the Tasman is about housing supply and what households pay and receive. Those matter. The question this scan asks is whether the debate is wide enough: how cities and regions will fund the infrastructure growth depends on, who will carry the cost of climate risk, how places will hold their people, and what AI will do to the jobs cities have relied on.

It is the first in a series, and later pieces will take individual trends in more depth.

Key insight

Some of the forces that will shape cities and regions over the next 25 years are barely part of the conversation.

If you would like a full copy of the report, including the full trend register and sources, please use the get in touch form.
Figure 1

The trend radar.

Each dot is a trend. Rings show timing, from mainstream trends at the centre to emerging trends at the edge. Size shows impact on cities and regions; fill shows how clear the direction is. Amber rings mark the critical uncertainties.

City Horizons trend radar showing sixteen trends across six drivers, positioned by timing, impact and certainty of direction
Figure 1. City Horizons trend radar, October 2026. Click to enlarge.Source: Next Horizon Advisory trend scan. Positions are judgement informed by the sources listed.

Six drivers, sixteen trends.

For each driver, the picture for cities and regions globally comes first, then what is distinctive about it in New Zealand and Australia. Select a driver to see its trends.

Driver · Trends 1, 2, 3DemographyAgeing, migration, housing
Globally

Populations are ageing and growth is slowing across advanced economies, with gains concentrating in fewer, larger places. Skilled people and migrants are contested, and housing costs decide where they can live.

In New Zealand and Australia

New Zealand's migration gain is the lowest in more than a decade and losses to Australia remain high. In Australia, housing costs are pushing growth from Sydney and Melbourne to Brisbane, Perth and the regions.

01Populations ageing and growth slowing, with gains concentrated in fewer places
StructuralMainstreamImpact: highDirection clear

Growth is concentrating in larger cities and their hinterlands, while many smaller towns and rural regions age and some decline. New Zealand's net migration gain fell to 14,200 in 2025, the smallest since 2013 outside the pandemic.

So what for cities and regions: Economic development moves from managing growth to competing for it. A growing share of the future workforce will be young Māori and Pacific people, so their education, skills and employment outcomes are central to future productivity.

02Competition for talent and migrants intensifying between cities and countries
VolatileMainstreamImpact: highUncertainCritical uncertainty

With ageing workforces across the OECD, skilled people are a contested resource. 47,500 people left New Zealand for Australia in 2025, a net loss of 28,500 against an average of 19,000 since 2004.

So what for cities and regions: Cities compete for people internationally as well as nationally. Retention, skills pathways and quality of place become core economic development tools.

03Housing affordability deciding where people can live and where growth goes
PressingMainstreamImpact: highDirection clear

High housing costs push working-age people and firms to cheaper places. New Zealand's house price to income ratio has fallen from 9.8 to 6.7, while Sydney lost a net 33,282 residents to the rest of Australia in 2024-25.

So what for cities and regions: Affordability is an economic development issue as much as a housing one. Whether New Zealand's improvement lasts depends on new zoning capacity and infrastructure funding turning into homes.

Driver · Trends 4, 8, 9TechnologyAI, digital, work
Globally

AI is moving into everyday professional work, digital infrastructure is becoming core urban infrastructure, and hybrid work has changed the role of city centres.

In New Zealand and Australia

Australasian cities have professional economies exposed to AI, and AEMO expects data centres to use 13 per cent of eastern Australia's grid electricity by 2035-36. A consented 280 MW data centre near Invercargill would draw about 6 per cent of New Zealand's electricity.

04AI reshaping knowledge work and the economic role of cities
AcceleratingEstablishedImpact: highUncertainCritical uncertainty

Early evidence suggests the first effects fall on entry-level roles in exposed occupations, concentrated in large cities. Stanford research found employment for 22 to 25 year olds in the most AI-exposed occupations fell by about 13 per cent relative to other workers.

So what for cities and regions: AI could reinforce the advantage of large, skilled cities or erode the entry-level jobs that feed them. Skills systems, graduate pipelines and city-centre demand all depend on which.

08Digital infrastructure becoming core urban and regional infrastructure
AcceleratingEstablishedImpact: mediumPartly clear

Data centres need large sites, firm power, water and fibre, and compete with other industry for all four. They bring large capital investment but few permanent jobs.

So what for cities and regions: Councils and regions need a clear view on where data centres fit, what they should pay towards infrastructure and how to capture local benefit. Large single users also concentrate risk for local economies and the grid.

09City centres being repurposed as hybrid work settles
StructuralMainstreamImpact: mediumDirection clear

Hybrid working has stabilised rather than reversed. Centres are shifting from places people have to be to places they choose to be. Auckland's City Rail Link opened in September 2026, with missed development around its stations acknowledged by the Minister.

So what for cities and regions: The value of transit and centre investment depends on the land use around it. Without coordinated rezoning and development partners, the benefits leak away.

Driver · Trends 5, 6, 7Economic geographyTrade, industry, agglomeration
Globally

High-value activity keeps clustering in large, connected city-regions while regional gaps persist. Trade is fragmenting, and clean energy and critical minerals are redrawing industrial geography.

In New Zealand and Australia

Small cities in small, open economies, far from markets, are exposed to trade settings set elsewhere. Energy resources give some regions a new opening, if grid, land and skills line up. The New Zealand–India free trade agreement, in force from October 2026, opens new routes for meat, wool, forestry and horticulture regions.

05Economic activity concentrating in larger, better-connected city-regions
StructuralEstablishedImpact: highPartly clear

Gaps between leading and lagging regions have persisted for two decades. Auckland Council estimates the City Rail Link's two new stations bring 21,000 more residents and 37,000 workplaces within a 12-minute walk of rail.

So what for cities and regions: Effective scale for Australasian cities comes from connecting centres and labour markets. Regions outside the main city-regions need strategies built on their own distinct strengths.

06Clean energy and critical minerals redrawing industrial geography
StructuralEstablishedImpact: highPartly clear

Affordable, firm, low-emissions energy is becoming a location factor alongside land and labour. New Zealand's proven and probable gas reserves fell 23 per cent in a year, while Australia has committed A$22.7 billion to its Future Made in Australia agenda.

So what for cities and regions: Energy is becoming an economic development question for every region. Places with renewable generation, grid capacity, industrial land and skills can attract investment; those reliant on gas or coal need transition plans before closures force them.

07Trade fragmenting and being rewired around new partners
VolatileMainstreamImpact: highUncertainCritical uncertainty

Tariffs, supply chain security and subsidy competition are back at the centre of economic policy, while countries diversify towards Asia and the Middle East. 82 per cent of New Zealand's exports to India will be tariff-free as the new agreement phases in.

So what for cities and regions: The gains will be uneven. Regions strong in meat, wool, forestry, horticulture and seafood stand to benefit, while dairy regions gain little. Export-dependent regions need diversification plans that hold up under several trade settings.

Driver · Trends 10, 11Climate riskHazards, insurance, adaptation
Globally

Global warming passed 1.5°C for a full year in 2024. Insurers and investors are repricing hazard risk, and who pays for adaptation is unresolved almost everywhere.

In New Zealand and Australia

Flood exposure in New Zealand is projected to grow to 2050, insurers are already pulling back from some places, and some communities are losing cover for their own flood schemes.

10Climate risk being priced into land, insurance and investment
AcceleratingEstablishedImpact: highDirection clear

Insurers, lenders and investors are pricing hazard risk at property level, often ahead of planning rules. About 10,000 homes in Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington and Dunedin could become hard to insure from 2035.

So what for cities and regions: Insurance and finance are becoming de facto land-use regulators. Spatial plans that ignore them risk zoning land that cannot be financed.

11Adaptation and managed retreat becoming a question of who pays
EmergingEmergingImpact: highUncertainCritical uncertainty

About 750,000 people in New Zealand live in homes exposed to a 1 per cent annual flood, rising to over 815,000 by 2050. Two West Coast flood schemes have already opted out of cover citing claim costs.

So what for cities and regions: Whoever carries adaptation costs will shape land values, public balance sheets and fairness between places for decades.

Driver · Trends 12, 13, 14GovernanceFunding, devolution, planning
Globally

Long-running infrastructure deficits are colliding with tight public budgets. Countries are rebuilding planning systems and testing how far to devolve funding and powers. England is now giving its mayors a share of locally raised income tax and business rates.

In New Zealand and Australia

New Zealand, one of the most centralised OECD countries, is rewriting its planning system, merging central agencies and capping rates while trialling city deals. Australia has its first National Urban Policy.

12Long-running infrastructure deficits meeting renewal, growth and resilience demands at once
PressingMainstreamImpact: highDirection clear

New Zealand spends over $20 billion a year on infrastructure but gets less value per dollar than many peers. In Australia, costs have risen by about A$130 billion across 13 of the largest public projects.

So what for cities and regions: Growth will increasingly have to pay its way through pricing, levies and value capture. The constraint is as much capacity, sequencing and cost control as money.

13Fiscal devolution and new models for funding cities and regions
VolatileEmergingImpact: highUncertainCritical uncertainty

England is moving fastest, while New Zealand is moving the other way: local government accounts for about 11 per cent of public spending, against 29 per cent across unitary OECD countries, and rates rises will be held to 2 to 4 per cent from 2029.

So what for cities and regions: How cities and regions are funded will decide what they can deliver. Places with a clear investment case will be ready if devolution deepens; others will be left out.

14Planning systems being rebuilt around long-term spatial strategy
StructuralMainstreamImpact: highPartly clear

New Zealand's Planning Act 2026 and Natural Environment Act 2026 create one combined plan per region, with draft regional spatial plans due in 2028. Australian states are reforming planning one by one under a national push for housing supply.

So what for cities and regions: Spatial plans become the main vehicle for aligning economic development, land and infrastructure. Places that build the evidence and partnerships now will shape them.

Driver · Trends 15, 16Community and placeExpectations, identity, partners
Globally

Communities expect growth to deliver local benefit, and trust in institutions is fragile. Community wealth building, now legislated in Scotland, is one response. Indigenous nations are becoming major landowners, investors and developers.

In New Zealand and Australia

The Māori economy asset base reached $118 billion in 2023, and iwi and hapū have a defined role in the new regional spatial planning system. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander corporations own or control about 16 per cent of Australia's land mass. Councils on both sides of the Tasman are starting to use procurement to keep more of the benefit of growth local.

15Indigenous peoples shaping growth, land and place
EmergingEmergingImpact: highPartly clear

Indigenous groups are moving from being consulted on development to owning, investing in and leading it, including in cities. Examples range from Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei's build-to-rent homes in Mount Albert and Tainui Group Holdings' Ruakura inland port to the Jericho Lands plan in Vancouver.

So what for cities and regions: Indigenous groups are increasingly partners and investors in city and regional growth. Strategies that work that way will move faster and last longer.

16Rising expectations that growth delivers shared prosperity, and new models for keeping wealth local
EmergingEstablishedImpact: mediumPartly clear

Communities are less willing to accept change without visible local benefit. In Auckland, The Southern Initiative and Amotai use procurement to direct spending into Māori and Pasifika enterprise; Scotland passed the first national community wealth building law in 2026.

So what for cities and regions: Economic development strategies need to show who benefits from growth. Social licence is now a delivery risk for housing, infrastructure and investment.

Figure 2

Impact and uncertainty.

Plotting the same trends by impact and uncertainty separates the planning assumptions, which strategies should simply build in, from the critical uncertainties, which strategies should be tested against.

Impact and uncertainty matrix placing the sixteen trends in four quadrants: planning assumptions, critical uncertainties, monitor and adjust, and watch for signals
Figure 2. Impact and uncertainty matrix, October 2026. Click to enlarge.Source: Next Horizon Advisory trend scan. Positions are judgement.
Testing strategyFive critical uncertaintiesWhere the answer would change what places should do

These are the questions where a reasonable person could argue either way. Strategies that only work at one end of these ranges carry risk that should be stated.

  • How far, and how fast, does AI reshape urban work?Trend 04
    Augments existing roles and lifts productivity↔Hollows out entry-level professional work
  • Does the trading environment stabilise or keep fragmenting?Trend 07
    Rules-based trade broadly restored↔Persistent blocs, tariffs and subsidy races
  • Do cities and regions gain fiscal power, or lose it?Trend 13
    Devolved funding and long-term settlements↔Tighter central control and capped local revenue
  • Who carries the cost of climate adaptation?Trend 11
    Shared national framework with pooled funding↔Costs fall on owners and individual councils
  • Can cities and regions hold and attract talent?Trend 02
    Net talent gains, renewed migration↔Sustained losses to larger, higher-wage places
Next stepsWhat places can do nowSix practical moves for councils and regions
  • 01Align economic development with spatial planning.Spatial plans are becoming the main vehicle for growth decisions, and in New Zealand draft regional spatial plans are due in 2028. Places that bring their economic, hazard and infrastructure evidence together now will shape them.
  • 02Plan for talent, not just population.Who stays, who leaves and who arrives matters more to a city's economy than headline growth.
  • 03Treat insurance and hazard data as planning inputs.Land that cannot be insured cannot be financed, whatever the zoning says.
  • 04Test strategies against more than one future.Use the five critical uncertainties to stress-test current economic development and spatial strategies, and record where they fail.
  • 05Make the case for long-term funding.Whether funding is devolved or stays central, it will go to places with a clear, evidenced investment case and partners already at the table, including indigenous partners.
  • 06Show who benefits.Growth that cannot show local benefit is losing its social licence. Measure and report who benefits from growth.
Full report

Want the full City Horizons 2026 report?

The full scan includes the trend register with evidence for each trend, what to watch, and sources. Get in touch and I'll send you a copy.

Request a copy
Insights & Presentations

Thinking and doing.

Selected articles, commentary and past presentations on economic development, spatial planning and regional growth.

Selected articles

Recent writing.

A selection of articles and commentary on economic development, spatial planning and regional policy.

Infrastructure New Zealand · 2024

Spatial planning and economic development — from strategy to delivery

Exploring how economic development thinking can be better integrated into spatial planning frameworks to drive better outcomes for communities and economies.

Read article →
Urban Development Institute of New Zealand · 2024

City and Regional Deals — insights from offshore

Drawing on international experience to examine what city and regional deals can offer New Zealand and what lessons can be learned from the UK and other countries.

Read article →
Taituarā

Going for growth — delivering outcomes for people and places

Examining how local government can take a more active role in driving inclusive economic growth and ensuring prosperity is shared across communities.

Read article →
Taituarā

Deal or No Deal — localism and regional deals

Considering the potential of regional deals and localism as tools for addressing long-standing economic disparities between New Zealand's regions.

Read article →
Selected past presentations

On the speaking circuit.

A selection of past presentations at conferences and events across New Zealand, Australia and internationally.

2026
Benchmarking as a City and Regional Leadership Tool

NEDC26, Australia

2026
From Deal to Delivery

The Urban Room

2026
Future Energy Scenarios for Taranaki

NZPI Annual Conference

2025
Emergence of a Global City Region

South East Queensland Council of Mayors

2025
Economics of Urban Growth

EDS Conference

2025
Creating Vibrant Town Centres

NZPI Conference

2017
Building an Innovation Hub in the Asia Pacific

World Bank Global Innovation Summit, Singapore

2017
Migrant Business Support Programmes

International Economic Development Council Annual Conference, Toronto

2016
City to City Partnerships and Trade

International Economic Development Council Annual Conference, Cleveland

2015
Building an Innovation Ecosystem

Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Brisbane

2014
Global Talent Attraction

International Economic Development Council Annual Conference, Fort Worth

Get in touch

Let's talk.

I'm always happy to have a conversation about a project or challenge, even if you're not sure yet what kind of support you need.

Send me a message.

I'll get back to you within one business day.